As for our demand for rare earth, there have been many disputes in the industry in recent days. Some people say that the supply of rare earth industry exceeds the demand, so the price has suffered a "Waterloo" and the market is fierce. However, some people said that the demand for rare earth is still in short supply, and the domestic demand for rare earth will increase by 50% in the next five years.
In the latter view, Chen Zhanheng, Deputy Secretary General of China Rare Earth Industry Association, pointed out at the relevant meeting held in Shanghai recently that domestic demand is expected to increase by nearly 9% this year to 97700 tons, and by the end of 2020, the demand will be close to 150000 tons, up 50% from 90000 tons in 2014.
Whether Chen Zhanheng's view is tenable depends on facts. Industry estimates show that by 2020, the global supply of rare earth may increase by 100000 tons. China's rare earth production accounts for not only about 90% of the global supply, but also about 80% of the consumption, and the demand is still growing.
Some analysts believe that if the global economy is steadily improving, the global supply of rare earth may increase by 100000 tons by 2020. In particular, people's demand for electronic products, such as mobile phones, is growing at a double-digit rate in emerging markets. If the economy of western countries can grow as expected and the demand of emerging markets such as China is also increasing, the demand for rare earth will increase significantly in the next five years.
Looking back at China, although the economic growth continues to slow down, I believe that this is only temporary, and its recovery will be sooner or later. At present, faced with pressure, some domestic industries have adjusted their industrial structure and vigorously developed high-tech industries, and rare earth is an indispensable element of high-tech industries.
In the next five years, the application of domestic industrial metals in high-tech fields will increase significantly. Cerium compounds in catalytic converters for automobile exhaust purification, glass additives and glass polishing compounds, and rare earth chlorides in cracking catalysts for petroleum refining; The consumption of rare earth in the production of automotive catalytic converters and many other applications of rare earth compounds has generally increased.
At the same time, the development of electric vehicles in China will drive the consumption of magnetic materials, thus driving the growth of demand for rare earth. In addition, europium and thulium are used for LCD screens, high-purity alumina and some rare earth are used for LED lamps, replacing inefficient incandescent lamps. Some rare earths are used to make magnetic materials for motors. The use of these metals can make the metal lighter and stronger.
To sum up, Chen Zhanheng, Deputy Secretary-General of China Rare Earth Industry Association, predicted a 50% increase in domestic rare earth demand. Despite the apparent changes in the global demand for rare earths, no matter how the economic factors affect it, the internal demand for rare earths in China is still strong. With the adjustment of the domestic economic structure and the strengthening of the vitality of the application industry, the growth of demand for rare earths will become inevitable.
